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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Allen Lazard grades out in the 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers last year with a remarkable 23.5% of his team's air yards accumulated.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The Bills pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.7%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (70.7%).
  • Since the start of last season, the shaky Bills defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a staggering 8.57 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets offensive blueprint to lean 9.7% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Allen Lazard to be a much smaller part of his team's passing game in this contest (5.5% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (14.8% in games he has played).

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