Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 12, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+105/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Allen Lazard has run a route on 91.3% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.