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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+239/-382).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +255 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +239.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.

THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (20.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.2% in games he has played).

Allen Lazard ranks in the 94th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.56 per game.

The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.9%).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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