Allen Lazard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Allen Lazard has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 30.6% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Allen Lazard has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

Favors Under

Allen Lazard's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.9% to 62.6%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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