Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
Alexander Mattison's 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects a noteable progression in his rushing ability over last year's 16.0 figure.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Alexander Mattison to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack in this game (45.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.4% in games he has played).

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