Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most yards in the league (140 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game this week (18.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (33.7% in games he has played).

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