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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Las Vegas Raiders vs Carolina Panthers

Alexander Mattison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 66.8% rate of throwing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football has been the Raiders.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

The Raiders offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Carolina's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Raiders being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to have just 125.4 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Raiders have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: fewest in the NFL.

Alexander Mattison's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 64.1%.

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