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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a 4-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The predictive model expects Alexander Mattison to notch 3.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs.

With an elite 9.0% Target Share (75th percentile) this year, Alexander Mattison rates among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Raiders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Los Angeles Rams, totaling the fewest attempts in football (just 25.8 per game) this year.

The Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, giving up 4.52 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.

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