Alexander Mattison Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

Favors Under

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
The predictive model expects Alexander Mattison to be a less important option in his offense's ground game in this week's game (48.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.0% in games he has played).
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Atlanta's DT corps has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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