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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Alec Pierce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-335).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +365 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +290.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • The predictive model expects Alec Pierce to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the goal line in this week's game (16.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).
  • The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Alec Pierce's 60.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 54.6% figure.
  • The Chargers defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the NFL in the red zone (50.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Colts.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 126.9 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Alec Pierce has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
  • The receiving TD field reads "0" on the back of Alec Pierce's trading card this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (64.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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