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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Alec Pierce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.
  • The projections expect Alec Pierce to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the end zone in this game (16.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).
  • Alec Pierce has compiled significantly more air yards this year (115.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
  • Alec Pierce's 60.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 43.8.
  • The Colts offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.8% red zone run rate.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.7 plays per game.
  • With a bad 54.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (11th percentile) this year, Alec Pierce rates as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59%) to wideouts this year (59.0%).

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