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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Alec Pierce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-290).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +240.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects Alec Pierce to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone in this contest (15.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).
  • After accruing 96.0 air yards per game last year, Alec Pierce has seen a big uptick this year, now pacing 117.0 per game.
  • Alec Pierce's 60.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.4% red zone run rate.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
  • With a subpar 51.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (8th percentile) this year, Alec Pierce stands among the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.
  • The Texans pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.8%) versus WRs this year (56.8%).

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