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Alec Pierce Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-275).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +255 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +255.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Colts to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.While Alec Pierce has garnered 5.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's passing offense near the end zone this week at 13.9%.After totaling 96.0 air yards per game last year, Alec Pierce has made big progress this year, now averaging 126.0 per game.Alec Pierce's 61.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 43.8.The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Colts are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.3% red zone run rate.Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.4 per game) this year.Alec Pierce has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing just 51.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 11th percentile among WRsWith a dreadful rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Alec Pierce stands as one of the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers this year.
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