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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+165/-235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +165.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Colts.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The predictive model expects Alec Pierce to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Alec Pierce's 60.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.8.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
  • With a subpar 51.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (8th percentile) this year, Alec Pierce stands among the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.
  • The Texans pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.8%) versus WRs this year (56.8%).
  • The Houston Texans cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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