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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+116/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • With a 63.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL has been the Colts.
  • The predictive model expects Alec Pierce to notch 7.0 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
  • Alec Pierce's 63.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 43.8.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the model to run just 64.2 total plays in this contest: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • With a subpar 51.9% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, Alec Pierce stands as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among WRs.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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