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Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +142 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts rank as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.7% pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Colts to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Alec Pierce's 61.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 43.8.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-worst group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.4 per game) this year.

Alec Pierce has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing just 51.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 11th percentile among WRs

The Falcons pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60%) vs. wideouts this year (60.0%).

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Alec Pierce ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 10