Alec Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alec Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
Alec Pierce's 88.3% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a a substantial improvement in his passing game utilization over last year's 73.2% mark.
The Indianapolis O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Colts.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
Alec Pierce's 24.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year conveys a a remarkable regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 35.0 mark.
Alec Pierce's 49.5% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a substantial decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 52.9% rate.
Alec Pierce is positioned as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 6.56 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile when it comes to wide receivers

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