Alec Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a whopping 60.3 per game on average).
Alec Pierce's 92.3% Route Participation Rate this year represents a material gain in his pass attack volume over last year's 73.2% figure.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
Alec Pierce's 1.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a significant improvement in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 0.0% mark.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Alec Pierce has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (49.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).
Alec Pierce's 25.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a meaningful regression in his receiving ability over last season's 35.0 mark.
Alec Pierce profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching just 55.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 8th percentile among wide receivers
Alec Pierce profiles as one of the least efficient receivers in the league, averaging a measly 7.01 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 18th percentile when it comes to WRs