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Alec Ingold

Alec Ingold Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Alec Ingold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1300/-1950).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1950.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Alec Ingold has accumulated a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among RBs. (This might not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Alec Ingold has not rushed for any TDs this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • Alec Ingold has been been lightly used his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Alec Ingold's 68.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 100.0% rate.

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