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Alec Ingold

Alec Ingold Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Alec Ingold Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1900/-4800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3900 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -4800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.
  • In regards to air yards, Alec Ingold grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a staggering 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Alec Ingold has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the NFL among RBs (1st percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.
  • Alec Ingold has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among RBs.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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