Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Albert Okwuegbunam has run fewer routes this season (62.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (36.5%).
Albert Okwuegbunam has been among the best tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 6.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
Albert Okwuegbunam's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 81.7% to 66.9%.
Albert Okwuegbunam's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating just 4.89 yards-per-target compared to a 7.24 rate last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.