Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Albert Okwuegbunam has been among the best tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 85th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the league.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Albert Okwuegbunam's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.7% to 72.1%.
Albert Okwuegbunam's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 4.83 yards-per-target compared to a 7.24 mark last year.