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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
A.J. Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+900/-1400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: 4th-most in football.
  • AJ Dillon has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (1st percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Eagles to be the most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.2% red zone run rate.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles.
  • AJ Dillon has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile when it comes to running backs.

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