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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

A.J. Dillon Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+690/-1400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +690.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to running backs: 0.05 per game since the start of last season.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

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