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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the Eagles as the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This year, the daunting New York Giants run defense has surrendered a mere 5.48 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 29th-best rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New York's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles.
  • AJ Dillon has played on 13.0% of his team's snaps this year, placing him in the 10th percentile when it comes to RBs.

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