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A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-143).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -143.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-slowest in football since the start of last season.The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.2% to 74.2%.The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
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