A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
With a remarkable 45.4% Route Participation% (78th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon has been among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the NFL.
The projections expect A.J. Dillon to garner 3.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.3%) vs. running backs this year (67.3%).

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