A.J. Dillon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon has earned 47.4% of his offense's carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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