My Account Log Out

reorder

A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos

A.J. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the projections to call 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.2 per game) this year.

A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

A.J. Brown's 88.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the league: 100th percentile for WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Eagles to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 53.4% red zone run rate.

A.J. Brown has put up quite a few less air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (95.0 per game).

A.J. Brown's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 70.6% to 53.4%.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™