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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -230 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.
  • The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) since the start of last season.
  • A.J. Brown has posted a staggering 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • A.J. Brown ranks in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 87.0 figure since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to be much less involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line in this contest (27.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
  • The Eagles offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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