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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

A.J. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -230 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

With a high 23.9% Red Zone Target Share (86th percentile) since the start of last season, A.J. Brown stands as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in the league.

A.J. Brown has compiled a whopping 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a paltry 60.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

The Rams cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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