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A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -158.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A.J. Brown has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 29.7% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

A.J. Brown has accrued a massive 96.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

With an impressive ratio of 0.50 per game through the air (94th percentile), A.J. Brown rates among the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs this year.

This year, the shaky Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 4th-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (53.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.

A.J. Brown's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 92.5.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

A.J. Brown TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16