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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -180.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 33.3% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
  • After averaging 95.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has produced significantly less this season, now averaging 84.0 per game.
  • With a remarkable ratio of 0.50 per game through the air (94th percentile), A.J. Brown rates among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in football among WRs this year.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.8%) versus wideouts this year (69.8%).
  • When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Las Vegas's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 12.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.0% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and play styles of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.68 seconds per play) will have the 11th-worst tempo out of all the games this week.
  • The 7th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Eagles this year (a lowly 54.0 per game on average).

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