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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • With a remarkable 25.0% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) this year, A.J. Brown rates as one of the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in football.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 0.43 per game through the air (91st percentile), A.J. Brown places among the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to WRs this year.
  • This year, the deficient Green Bay Packers defense has yielded a massive 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the biggest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 52.2% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see just 124.1 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a lowly 52.2 per game on average).
  • A.J. Brown has compiled far fewer air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (95.0 per game).

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