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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-116/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are projected by the projections to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • In this week's contest, A.J. Brown is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.
  • The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Vikings defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • A.J. Brown's 27.2% Target Rate this year indicates a substantial decline in his passing offense volume over last year's 37.0% mark.
  • A.J. Brown's receiving skills have worsened this season, totaling a measly 4.1 adjusted receptions vs 5.2 last season.

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