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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the projections to call 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.2 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to garner 9.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 34.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Eagles to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

A.J. Brown's receiving performance has declined this year, averaging just 3.6 adjusted catches vs 5.2 last year.

A.J. Brown's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 70.6% to 53.4%.

The Denver Broncos pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.4%) to wideouts this year (61.4%).

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