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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) since the start of last season.

Our trusted projections expect A.J. Brown to earn 8.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.

A.J. Brown has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 34.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Eagles offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

A.J. Brown's 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 70.6% figure.

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