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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

In this game, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers with 8.5 targets.

A.J. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 34.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Rams defense has allowed a paltry 60.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

The Rams cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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