My Account Log Out
 
 
A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -117.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Eagles will be forced to start backup quarterback Tanner McKee in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.6 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (34.1 per game) this year.
  • The model projects A.J. Brown to garner 8.8 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
  • When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.4% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
  • The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • A.J. Brown's 30.1% Target% this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his pass attack usage over last season's 37.0% mark.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™