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A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

The projections expect A.J. Brown to earn 8.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.

A.J. Brown ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a terrific 4.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

A.J. Brown's 29.9% Target Rate this season indicates a significant decrease in his pass game volume over last season's 37.0% figure.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

A.J. Brown ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 17