reorder

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-132/+119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -172 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect A.J. Brown to accrue 8.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

A.J. Brown is positioned as one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an excellent 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

This year, the shaky Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 4th-largest rate in football.

The Commanders safeties project as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.

A.J. Brown's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 92.5.

A.J. Brown's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 70.6% to 63.6%.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

A.J. Brown ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16