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A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.

In this week's contest, A.J. Brown is projected by the model to rank in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.2 targets.

With a fantastic 4.6 adjusted catches per game (88th percentile) this year, A.J. Brown rates as one of the best WRs in the game in football.

The Bears pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.6%) versus wide receivers this year (66.6%).

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Chicago's group of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 7-point favorite this week.

The model projects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Eagles this year (a measly 54.3 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.

More A.J. Brown Player Props

A.J. Brown ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

A.J. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 13