A.J. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
A.J. Brown has gone out for fewer passes this year (89.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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