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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-112/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
  • The projections expect A.J. Brown to earn 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • This year, the porous Giants defense has conceded a monstrous 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.63 seconds per snap.
  • A.J. Brown has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this year (27.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (37.0%).
  • A.J. Brown has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).

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