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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-105/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect A.J. Brown to accrue 8.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • A.J. Brown has accrued a massive 96.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • This year, the shaky Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 4th-largest rate in football.
  • This year, the porous Commanders defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a massive 9.25 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.
  • A.J. Brown's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 92.5.
  • A.J. Brown's 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a significant reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 80.0 mark.

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