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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect A.J. Brown to notch 7.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have only 126.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
  • A.J. Brown's 25.5% Target% this season marks an impressive drop-off in his air attack utilization over last season's 37.0% figure.

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