A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-195/+148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ +148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this season (92.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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