A.J. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Brown

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Brown

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 80.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 75.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
A.J. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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