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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
AJ Barner Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +245 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +240.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • This year, the porous Washington Commanders pass defense has given up a monstrous 82.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-worst rate in the league.
  • The Commanders defense has given up the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.62 per game this year.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Washington's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league in the red zone (50.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks this year (just 52.7 per game on average).

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