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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
AJ Barner Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-355).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +345 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +315.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.6% red zone run rate.
  • The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seahawks this year (only 52.4 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in football against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.2% Adjusted Completion%).

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